一 | 最近，国际货币基金组织（IMF）的一把手和二把手接连发声警告“灰犀牛”： IMF总裁“一把手”格奥尔基耶娃表示，私募信贷市场规模已突破2.3万亿美元，远超监管与数据监测能力，是她“夜不能寐的风险之一”。IMF报告指出，私募信贷基金的高杠杆、低透明度，可能成为下一轮信用紧缩的触发点。
二 | 同时IMF的“二把手”第一副总裁、前首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特（Gita Gopinath）称美国股市如果崩盘，将可能引发比2000年互联网泡沫更严重、更全球化的经济危机。并称如果出现类似2000年的崩盘，美国家庭可能损失超20万亿美元，外国投资者损失约15万亿美元。
三 | 这两个看似独立的警告，实则指向同一条暗流：全球金融体系的脆弱性正在加深，而结果或是史诗级财富大重置。 Lavrov expressed gratitude to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for the invitation, which confirms the "special nature of our [Russia-Belarus] relations, our alliance and strategic partnership.","During a lengthy conversation today, we discussed in detail the global situation. The problems that international relations and efforts to preserve international law face due to the selfish position and policy of the West, which is trying to impose its dictatorship on everyone, issuing ultimatums and not shunning any methods of subjugation," Lavrov said.,The diplomat noted that it is important now to uphold principles of the United Nations Charter.,"The future of the world order is really at stake, and we will return to the roots and in practice we will uphold the principles of the UN Charter, first and foremost principle of the sovereign equality of States. Otherwise, the world will be plunged into long-term chaos. Our choice is clear. We stand for unconditional respect of international law and we will defend this position together with our Belarusian and other allies," Lavrov added.,Genuine Multipolar Order Backed by BRICS Allows Greater Levels of Dialogue, Ex-Envoy Says24 June, 14:09 GMT,The Russia's top diplomat also said that the European Union is suffering from sanctions imposed by the United States against Russia much more than Washington itself, which means that the US probably wants to weaken the bloc as its competitor as well.,"If you compare the sanctions imposed by EU countries against Russia and Belarus, and, on the other hand, [the sanctions] imposed by the United States, then [you'll see that] the US, in general, are sparing themselves and trying not to be very active in these areas that can harm their economy," Lavrov emphasized.,The Russian foreign minister added that the US was being negatively affected by its own sanctions, but the EU was suffering from them much more. Therefore, the sanctions promoted by Washington might seek to weaken not only Russia and Belarus, but the EU as a competitor as well, Lavrov said.,Frustration Growing Among US Allies as Russia Sanctions Backfire, Reports Say25 June, 12:51 GMT,Moscow, Minsk Continue to Insist on Having Their Interests Respected Amid NATO Expansion,Russia and Belarus will keep insisting on having their security interests respected as NATO continues its expansion eastwards, Lavrov noted.,"Foreign policy and security issues were discussed at length during the presidents' meeting in St. Petersburg. It was underscored that Russia and Belarus will insist that their legitimate interests in the sphere of security during the age when NATO continues to act aggressively, that our legitimate interests be respected. We are always in favor of dialogue, we are always in favor of solutions that ensure equality, that ensure a balance of interests," Lavrov told journalists after a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.,The minister recalled several decisions made in the 1990s and 2010 on non-strengthening of countries' security at the expense of the security of others, and Moscow has since been insisting that these commitments be implemented. However, Lavrov noted, NATO has expanded five times while saying "the alliance is defensive, do not be afraid.",The Warsaw Pact — a collective defense treaty, signed between the Soviet Union and some countries of eastern Europe to counterweight NATO — no longer exists, the minister said, adding that further NATO enlargement eastward to establish a new line of defenses was "completely absurd.","For all these years, Russia has been trying to persuade the alliance to honor its commitments, not to strengthen its security at the expense of the security of others, not to expand eastward. But they have been pumping weapons into Ukraine and indulging neo-Nazi manifestations in every way, the theory and practice of neo-Nazism that has been taking root in Ukraine, had supported the coup d'état [in Ukraine] and the undermining of the Minsk agreements," Lavrov said.,On Tuesday, Turkey, Sweden, and Finland signed a security memorandum, after Ankara withdrew its objections to the two nations' entry into the alliance. On Wednesday, the two countries were officially invited to join NATO on the sidelines of the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid.,NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier on Thursday that the protocol on Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO will be signed on July 5.,Putin: If NATO Infrastructure is Deployed to Finland & Sweden, Russia Will Respond in ‘Mirror Way’01:02 GMT,Russia will analyze decisions made at the NATO summit in Madrid and will act accordingly, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov highlighted.,"We will analyze the situation and make a decision depending on how exactly, what the adopted and announced decisions of the North Atlantic Alliance will be embodied in," Lavrov said.,US Activity Regarding Biolabs in Europe Dangerous,Lavrov also noted that Moscow and Minsk consider US actions regarding biological laboratories in Europe as a threat.,"The actions of the United States in the field of bio laboratories in Europe are a danger to the whole world," Lavrov said at a press conference in Belarus.,Russia and Belarus see that the US does not want to ensure transparency of its biological activity, Lavrov added.,Plague and Typhus: What Have American Scientists Been Up to in Ukraine’s Biolabs?17 April, 18:23 GMT,The Russian foreign minister is on a working visit to Minsk that coincides with the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and Belarus. Earlier in the day, Lavrov had a meeting with Lukashenko.。 IMF对股票崩盘严重性的估算 IMF的“二把手”第一副总裁、前首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特（Gita Gopinath）公开表示： 若出现与互联网泡沫相当幅度的回调，可能会抹去美国家庭超过20万亿美元的财富，约相当于2024年美国GDP的70%…… 全球层面的后果同样严峻。海外投资者可能面临超过15万亿美元的财富损失，约为世界其他地区GDP的20%。 相比之下，互联网泡沫破裂时海外损失约2万亿美元，按今日价值约4万亿美元，占当时世界其他地区GDP的不到10%。 虽然上面提到的数字非常吓人，但是需要指出的是，吉塔·戈皮纳特（Gita Gopinath）的这段话不是一个“预测”，而是一个“情景分析”或更确切地说是“压力测试”： 其核心逻辑是：今天的市场规模和全球对美国资产的敞口远大于2000年，因此同等幅度的下跌将造成大得多的损失。 具体而言： 互联网泡沫破裂时（2000年～2002年），市场经历了巨幅下跌：以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数（NASDAQ）从高点到低点下跌了约78%；范围更广的标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）下跌了约49%。 当然以上都是从高点的最大下跌幅度，为避免用极端值，很多情景分析会取35%作为“互联网泡沫量级”的代表性回调幅度。 图：美联储最新统计的美国家庭资产负债表 如果按照目前的美国家庭股票持有情况来看，61万亿美元的35%大概就是20万亿美元；相比之下，2024年美国GDP总量为29万亿多点。
四 | 那海外的15万亿美元损失是怎么来的呢？ 图：美国财政部统计的外资持有的美国证券存量 从上图中可以看出，截至2024年6月30日，外资持有美股大约17万亿美元。（之所以用了这么滞后的数据，是因为这已经是最新数据了。
五 | 这个数据的发布时滞很长：截至2025年6月的数据，预计在2026年2月27日才能发布） 考虑到2024年6月30日标普只有5500点，而现在已经接近6700点，所以按照比例来算：17*（6700/5500）=20.71。
六 | 如果市值回调35%，外资在美股的损失大概是7万亿美元；另外8万亿美元将来自于美国崩盘向海外股市外溢造成的损失： 目前全球股市的总市值大概就是120万亿美元的水平，而美国自己就占了超过60万亿美元，在美国大跌的背景下，非美股市历史上也会联动下跌，但幅度通常低于美国本土。保守起见，即便外围股市跌个15%，这就差不多八九万亿了。 这回真的跌不起 35%的幅度，实际上是正常熊市下跌的水平，但是这回真的跌不起。 因为这一次不仅仅是蒸发市值这么简单。 首先，这一次对消费的影响将非常严重。最近几年（2023～2025年），美国实际个人消费支出（Real PCE）同比大致在2.5%～2.6%附近，但在互联网泡沫前的90年代后期（1998～1999年）：美国实际个人消费支出常见增速在4%～5%。 在目前牛市情况下已经非常疲弱的消费增速，是经不起熊市打击的，特别是现在的美国消费对股市依赖也越来越高的情况下，更是如此： 2022年以来高收入群体支出领跑并托住了美国总消费：美国前10%人群的消费现在占比接近一半，而这群人持股与金融资产占比最高，因而对股市最敏感。
七 | 主流研究估计股市财富每变动1美元，年消费变动约2.8～5美分，但在目前结构下，影响比例肯定会更高：如果美国股市蒸发20万亿美元，对消费的影响将是上万亿级别。 由于美国约70%的GDP都是消费，这个冲击量级足以把当年消费增速拉低数个百分点，从而把GDP增速压低约至少2个百分点。 关键问题是，这次可能不太好恢复。
八 | 以往美国经济危机会出现大量“避险资金”来抄底：历史上，美元在危机时期往往走强，所谓“避险买入”有助于抵消以美元计价财富缩水的冲击。即便危机来源自美国，投资者也常常涌向美元资产，使美元升值。 但现在有理由认为下一次危机时这种机制未必奏效。 首先，市场对美联储的看法在维持投资者信心方面至关重要。然而，近期的特朗普对美联储的一系列操控和挑战，让人质疑美联储能否能继续不受外部压力干扰地运作。若此类担忧加深，可能进一步侵蚀对美元及更广泛美国金融资产的信任。 第二，与2000年不同的是，如今美国增长面临的逆风更为强劲：美国加征关税，以及全球经济秩序走向的不确定性上升；同时，政府债务处于历史高位，美国像2000年那样通过财政刺激来托底经济的空间也更有限。 第三、之前危机都是有全球力量在相互配合，共同走出危机；现在特朗普把人都给得罪了遍，下次危机更可能的范式是各人顾各人，甚至“落井下石”。 所以，如果这次美股市场崩盘，其后果不太可能像互联网泡沫破裂后的那样短暂且相对温和。
九 | 如今面临的财富风险更大，而用于缓冲回调冲击的政策空间更小，结构性脆弱点与宏观环境都更为凶险。
十 | 美股一旦崩溃，一个更加严峻、甚至是翻天覆地的全球性后果或将出现……。
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