North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump cross south of the Military Demarcation Line, after Trump briefly stepped over to the northern side, in the Joint Security Area (JSA) of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized zone (DMZ) on June 30, 2019. Photo: VCG
Just hours before a military exercise between the US and South Korea due to get underway on Monday, US President Donald Trump announced that Washington would reduce military exercises with key regional ally Seoul, citing his positive relationship with the North Korean leader and South Korea's lack of assistance with Iran, CNN reported.
Chinese experts see Trump's sudden decision to scale back military drills with South Korea as a signal of his intention to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula and possibly return to direct diplomacy with Pyongyang. However, they warned that a carrot-and-stick approach may not work with Pyongyang, which has already seen Washington renege on its commitments. If Trump sincerely seeks peace on the peninsula, returning to the negotiating table with a genuine willingness to engage should be the first step.
Writing on Truth Social on Sunday, Trump said "based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea."
"These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America (as usual!), but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a Country that, as long as Donald J. Trump has been President, has been unthreatening and respectful," wrote the US president, noting that since it was too late to cancel the exercises entirely, he had asked Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to "substantially reduce" US participation.
The 11-day exercise, known as Ulchi Freedom Shield, was expected to involve about 18,000 South Korean troops. According to the US military, South Korean and US forces planned to conduct live-fire drills to test precision-strike and maneuver capabilities under complex operational scenarios, as well as river-crossing operations and the deployment of pre-positioned military supplies, South Korea's Chosun Ilbo reported.
Trump also reiterated his request for South Korea to help with the US war against Iran. "While somewhat unrelated, I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, 'No thanks!'" Trump wrote.
At a press conference of China's Foreign Ministry on Monday, a reporter also raised Trump's claim that he would scale back joint military exercises with South Korea, citing the high cost of the drills and his good relationship with North Korean leader, and asked how China would support the resumption of dialogue between the US and North Korea. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded, "we have noted the relevant reports. Maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and advancing the political settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue serve the common interests of all parties."
South Korean media Yonhap News Agency reported that Trump's instruction came as the situation on the Korean Peninsula remained tense again. The media noted that Trump's move can be seen as a conciliatory gesture toward the North Korea, after the White House repeatedly affirmed that Trump remains open to dialogue with Pyongyang "without any preconditions."
Trump has long sought to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but his first-term diplomatic efforts produced few substantive results. The decision to scale back military exercises with South Korea may therefore signal an intention to send goodwill and return to direct diplomacy with North Korea, an unfinished piece of business from his first term, Song Zhongping, another Chinese military affairs expert, told the Global Times.
Long-standing tensions between the US and North Korea are a major source of instability on the Korean Peninsula, Lü Chao, an expert on East Asian studies at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times, noting that the fundamental way to address these tensions is for the two sides to return to the negotiating table and resolve their differences through peaceful dialogue, rather than escalating tensions through displays of military force.
On August 13, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea responded to the scheduled military drills between South Korea and the US. The spokesperson said that "it is our consistent principle of ensuring security to respond to a new level of a threat with a new level of a deterrent. DPRK remains steadfast in its will to frustrate outsiders' hostile acts with the most powerful and overwhelming force and absolutely defend the supreme interests of the state security," according to official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
On Saturday, Trump shared a photo of himself with Kim Jong Un, the top leader of the DPRK on Truth Social, and wrote that he and the North Korean leader "get along GREAT!"
During Trump's first presidential term, he and Kim first met in Singapore in June 2018, marking the first-ever US-DPRK summit. They met again in Hanoi, Vietnam in February 2019, and later that June in the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom, according to Xinhua News Agency.
North Korea's past dealings with the US, particularly the breakdown of bilateral negotiations without substantial progress, have eroded Pyongyang's trust in Washington, Lü said.
Therefore, if Trump genuinely wants to leverage his relationship with the North Korean leader to address tensions on the Korean Peninsula, emphasizing their personal ties alone will not be enough. Washington will need to demonstrate genuine sincerity and back its words with concrete action, according to the expert.
。　　记者注意到，随着上市公司半年报持续披露，险资最新持仓轮廓清晰：电气设备、硬件、机械、化工等赛道获重点加仓，举牌节奏放缓的同时，资金逐步向硬科技、新质生产力领域延伸。　　值得关注的是，近日，《保险公司资产负债管理办法》（下称《办法》）正式落地，资产负债匹配指标趋严，高股息资产的配置价值进一步凸显，成为险企对冲利率下行压力、达标收益考核的重要抓手。

二 | 　　权益占比上行，重点布局制造、硬件、化工等板块　　2026年上半年，保险行业资金运用规模突破40万亿，债券依旧维持压舱石作用。

三 | 与此同时，股票占比创近四年新高，尤其是在二季度权益市场大幅上涨的背景下，保险行业权益资产规模持续提升，资金结构也进一步向股票和基金倾斜。　　近期，伴随着上市公司半年报披露进入尾声，险资的最新持仓情况也逐渐明晰，据Wind金融数据终端，险资现身十大流通股东的个股中，按中上协行业分类，制造业牢牢占据首位，此外，金融业，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，采矿业，以及电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业也均获险资重点配置。

四 | 　　从Wind行业分类观察，电气设备、硬件设备、化工、机械板块，是险资重点持仓的赛道。　　从加仓动向来看，硬件设备、机械、化工、医药生物、交通运输板块均有多只个股获险资加码，新晋上百只个股前十大流通股；同期，险资对70余只个股进行不同比例的减仓，涉及电气设备、化工、建筑、电信服务、食品饮料等多个板块。

五 | 　　从个股来看，增持股份数量居前的个股分别属于钢铁Ⅱ、公用事业、交通运输、有色金属板块，增持数量最高的为新华保险通过分红、传统产品账户增持包钢股份（600010.SH）；瑞众人寿以自有资金账户增持国电电力（600795.SH）；中国人寿以传统产品账户增持大秦铁路（601006.SH）。

六 | 　　持仓市值方面，从二季度末数据来看，除中国平安持仓平安银行（000001.SZ）外，首位是中国人寿通过普通保险产品账户持有中国联通（600050.SH），期末持仓市值为127.6亿元。

七 | 截至上半年末，险资持仓市值居前的，除平安银行和保险股外，还有贵州茅台（600519.SH）、海康威视（002415.SZ）、紫金矿业（601899.SH）、江苏银行（600919.SH）。　　值得一提的是，今年以来险资举牌动作有所放缓，前8个月内仅有3家险企合计完成6次举牌。根据公告时间统计，2026年截至8月15日险资6次举牌5家上市公司（含A股及H股），其中，平安人寿举牌农业银行（1288.HK）、招商银行（3968.HK）和中国人寿（2628.HK），太保寿险、富德财险分别举牌上海机场（600009.SH）和亚康股份（301085.SZ）。　　招商证券分析员张彤对此分析指出，举牌次数下降预计是受去年高股息资产集中配置后新增空间收窄等影响，同时保险公司投资方向也从高息银行基建股拓展至硬科技等新质生产力领域，将更多资金倾斜至网下新股申购、IPO 战略配售等，加大布局半导体、AI、高端装备、生物医药等前沿领域。

八 | 　　资产负债管理新规出台，高股息配置需求凸显　　近日，《保险公司资产负债管理办法》重磅出台，在明晰资产负债管理目标和管理原则的基础上，对资产负债管理的治理结构、政策和程序、监管指标和监测指标、监督管理等做出详细规范。　　结合《办法》要求，业内关注的热点及预测之一，在于险资对高股息股票增配趋势有望延续。　　从监管及监测指标框架来看，期限结构、成本收益及流动性的匹配要求进一步强化。其中，对成本收益的要求有明显提升，根据《办法》，人身险公司净投资收益覆盖率不可低于100%，也即过去三年的净投资收益率能够覆盖负债保证成本。在业内看来，这是险企面临压力较大的核心指标。　　保险公司净投资收益主要来自固收产品的利息收入和股票类资产的股息收入，但现实是，低利率环境下利息收入承压，股息收入成为险资平衡收益的主要抓手。　　在此前提下，国联民生证券参考目前长久期存量债券利率后测算指出，固收类资产的总收益贡献率大致为2.12%，则权益类资产需要贡献0.49%的投资收益率。　　情景假设下，假设预定负债成本率的范围是2.9%-3%，高股息股票的平均股息率在4.5%-5%之间，则需要增配的OCI账户股票规模预计在2.07-2.91万亿元之间。假设长期股权投资的分红收益能计入监管考核指标计算，则需要增配的OCI账户股票和长期股权投资规模预计在0.63-1.48万亿元之间。　　事实上，高股息资产正是险资在权益市场布局的重要落子。今年3月的业绩发布会上，中国人保透露，2025年公司OCI股票的投资规模较2025年初增长158%，在投资资产中的占比上升了两个百分点，持仓OCI股票的平均股息率达到4.27%，进一步增厚了股息收入对净投资收益的贡献。　　中国太保多次强调其哑铃型资产配置策略，哑铃的一端，即是高股息、低波动、现金流稳定的优质蓝筹资产。公司管理层在此前采访中表态，“我们需要通过高分红回报来提高净投资收益率，支撑起投资收益的安全垫。